A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
